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» One Touch Football - Archive » World » OTF Met Office - Brace yourselves... (Page 2)

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Author Topic: OTF Met Office - Brace yourselves...
dalliance
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I thought this was another sex thread with Malcolm revealing his preferred foreplay line.
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TonTon
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Snow is NO REASON for a football match to be called off.
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Croute au fromage et oeuf au plat
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Yep, you get to see a game played with those great orange balls as well!

Gus, it looks like you won't get the milder forecasted later today so more snow on the way it seems. If I was you, I'll don my best boots, a hat and hit the streets to enjoy that great silence you get when there is a good covering of snow in a city.

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Croute au fromage et oeuf au plat
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A pretty interesting post about "modern winter" from the Netweather forum, a fair bit of terminology but nothing too arcane:

quote:
Like other non-technical expressions used to describe meteorological/climatic matters (see ‘bartlett’ or ‘close to average’) ‘the modern winter’ is a useful shorthand expression but is, necessarily, somewhat imprecise. So far as I understand it the term describes the winters from 1987/8 to date. Broadly, such winters have been mild and have lacked any prolonged (or often, any) severe cold spells and a lack of widespread significant snowfall. Such cold as there is tends to be a product of anticyclonic inversions as opposed to cold polar or continental air masses. Various explanations have been offered (that to my untutored mind appear to be complementary): warm sst anomalies, increased cyclogenesis, a northward tracking Polar Jet, positive AO/NAO indices.

In early October Kevin Bradshaw/Mr Data and Julian/Jackone posted data setting out the incidence of
days per year with a CET mean of 0c or less from 1772 to date. I have broken the data down decadally showing average no. days per year with a mean less than or equal to 0c, fewer than/equal to 5 days, greater than or equal to 10/20/40 days, in an attempt to see if the data give some support to the idea of the modern winter. Obviously there are many other data sets relevant to the debate. It is true also that a day with a CET mean of 0c or less is, in truth a measure of very cold, as opposed to ‘commonplace’ cold. A further problem with the data I have tabulated and tried to interpret is, of course, that it cannot distinguish between cold inversions and polar/continental cold. Nonetheless the exercise is, I believe, useful.

We now have two full decades of the modern winter. Three things strike me as significant:
1. the anomalous warmth of the decade 1998-2007;
2. the fact that the generally mild winters of the decade 1988-1997 are close to other, earlier decades;
3. the anomalous cold of the decade immediately prior to the 20 years of the modern winter.


1. 2007-1998 is so far beyond recent warming trends as to raise the possibility that it may be a blip in an otherwise gently warming trend (cf. Arctic sea ice in 2007?); we will of course not know until we have data up to at least 2026. The average number of ‘cold days’ at 3.0 is markedly lower than the nearest three decades (averages from 6.8-7.1); 8 out of 10 years had 5 or fewer cold days: no other decade records more than 5; prolonged or repeated cold is entirely absent with no year recording more than 8 cold days: all other ‘mild’ decades record at least 3 years where there were 10 or more cold days.

2. The preceding decade whilst undoubtedly mild does not stand out, on this basis, as particularly anomalous: true the mean of 6.8 is the mildest bar 1998-2007 but it is only slightly milder than those recorded from 1918-1937 (7.1, 7. and is not dramatically milder than 1908-1917 at 8.4; with only 4 years recording 5 or fewer cold days it is, on one measure, colder than the decades 1908-1937 (all of which record 5 such years); it records 3 years where there are 10 or more (but less than 20) cold days as did 1918-1927.

3.As to 1978-1987 the cold seems highly unusual by 20th c standards but is also cold by those of the second half of the 19th c: the decadal mean of 15.4 days was only exceeded once in the 20th c, twice in the second half of the 19th c and twice in the first half of the 19th c. Taking the decadal aggregate of cold days equal to or greater than 10 in each year (7) only 4/25 decades, all in the mid 19th c or earlier, exceeded this and no decade in the 20th c equalled it. The mean of cold days per year of 15.4 was exceeded only once in the 20th c and only 6 times in the late 18/19th centuries, whilst the aggregate of 5 or fewer days at 1 was matched in 3 decades and only exceeded in 3 decades (1838-1847, 1808-1817 and 1798-1807).

It is at least arguable that part of the reason why we are so aware of recent mild winters is that immediately before we experienced an unusual concentration of cold winters or at least winters with prolonged/repeated cold spells. Those of us who grew up in that run of winters may unintentionally find ourselves using that decade of cold winters as the base line against which subsequent winters are to be judged. Be that as it may, it does not, of course, alter the anomalous nature of the winters in 1998-2007. However I wonder whether the winters of the preceding decade, 1988-1997, are judged too ‘harshly’ because they came immediately after such anomalous cold?

Would we use the term ‘modern winter’ if we had just experienced a decade such as 1988-1997? Almost certainly not as it was neither obviously anomalous and was only one decade. The significance of the ‘averagely mild’ decade 1988-1997 is first that it stood out coming after the anomalous cold of the immediately preceding decade and secondly was followed by a decade of anomalous warmth thus gaining significance both because we have 2 consecutive decades of mild-very mild winters and the temptation to infer that there is a continuing trend to milder winters.

Context is all.


1. Exceptionally prolonged severe cold (i.e. 40+days p.a.) has always been very rare (only 6 winters).
2. Very mild winters (i.e. 5 or less days) were quite common in the 20th c (approx 3.9 per decade), relatively unusual in the late 19th c (approx 2.4 per decade) and rare in the early 19th /18th centuries (approx 1.4 per decade).
3. Prolonged severe cold (i.e. 20+ days p.a.) was rare in the 20th c (1.0 per decade) but rather more common in the late 19th c (approx 2.8 per decade) and especially the early 19th /18th centuries (approx 3.9).
4. I have assumed that Hadley will not record the 2 December CET days with a mean of less than 0c that Manley has (it would merely change the mean to 3.2 from 3.0).



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Gus Tomato
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Bloody hell, Croute.
You really do love this shit.

As for going out in it, nah, fuck that.
I got a warm gaff and a cold beer.

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WornOldMotorbike
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This is a great spectator sport for us snowfolks: watching people get upset over a few inches. I've seen pictures of places not 200 KM from Toronto (down near Lake Erie) where the accumulated snow is over the telephone poles. Out in Newfoundland, when they get hit hard, it's frequently so deep that people literally tunnel out with their snowthrower. The walk up to their house looks like a hallway, with vertical sides well over their heads.
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Uncle Ethan
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I thought this thread was going to be about the Australian Man's Guide to Foreplay.

[ 04.01.2008, 05:37: Message edited by: Uncle Ethan ]

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Lodzubelieveit
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Just started snowing in the heart of Fermanagh ...
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Wyatt Earp
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Man?
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Malcolm X
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"I thought this was another sex thread with Malcolm revealing his preferred foreplay line"

So you came on here to learn a thing or two from the master?

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garcia en dolor
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is dublin the only place in ireland or the UK where it's not snowing? it's just dark, rainy and miserable.
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Eggchaser
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quote:
"I thought this was another sex thread with Malcolm revealing his preferred foreplay line"

So you came on here to learn a thing or two from the master?

Well, in his absence, you'll have to do.
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Andy C
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Yeah, it's probably snowing there as well, Wyatt.
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boris
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It's not snowed in Oxford yet. In fact, fingers crossed, it doesn't look like it will for some time.
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Croute au fromage et oeuf au plat
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First reliable signs that this Arctic blast predicted for the coming weeks is more than just the figment of the imagination of a nutty forecaster (see Daily Express), with the polar vortex unstability and activity above Greenland falling into place. Jet is still seen as tracking south of the UK.

Something of a rarity in the Lake District as well, avalanche risks!

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