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» One Touch Football - Archive » World » OTF Met Office - Brace yourselves... (Page 6)

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Author Topic: OTF Met Office - Brace yourselves...
gt3
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F*ck. I hate the snow.
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Croute au fromage et oeuf au plat
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The snow situation is changing constantly, it's near impossible to nail an area for snow so up until it's above us, it's just models. The last GFS run of the day has this lovely prediction for monday, looks rather bracing in the Highlands to say the least...-21c the lowest.

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[ 28.01.2008, 22:54: Message edited by: Croute au fromage et oeuf au plat ]

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Gangster Octopus
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Oi, Yuri, just fuck off to China, Ok?
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Croute au fromage et oeuf au plat
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A day of downgrades in term of cold, snow and duration but one feature has made a rather worrying come back, here is a senior forecaster of the Netweather website explaining more about it:

quote:
This thread is to discuss the forecasts and possibly the reality of very strong winds and heavy snow combined in a blizzard or "snow hurricane" across parts of northeast Scotland Thursday night into Friday.

(.....)

The gradient with this feature is estimated at 60 knots with gust potential to 90 knots, but based on the 1969 analogue, higher winds could develop due to the unstable dynamics of this arctic air of very low thickness over 5-8 C ocean waters.

Therefore the potential exists with several models at least occasionally showing such a deep centre and tight gradient, that a snow hurricane could develop across northeast Scotland as temperatures of about -2 or lower combine with the 60 knot winds to produce zero visibility in blowing snow, as well as dangerous freezing spray conditions and icing for aircraft.

This would be a ferocious storm even by the standards of northern Scotland. Even in Canada something like this has only been witnessed on rare occasions in the worst snow squalls or the worst storms on record off the east coast of Newfoundland or Labrador.

Snowfall amounts could also become quite heavy over the mainland where slopes face north especially, in the range of 10-20 cms or more, but for the northern Isles the main issue would be the lethal wind chill and zero visibility of the event as well as structural damage, especially when icing is considered. On the mainland, some north-facing harbours could be over-topped by enormous waves and storm surge, combined with the freezing spray conditions, making for very dangerous conditions there.

These conditions would gradually spread in modified form much further south down the east coast as well as some parts of the west coast of both Scotland and northwest England, but the hurricane strength wind gusts would probably extend no further south than approximately Fort William to north Yorkshire. Note this implies possible gusts in Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh of about 80 mph from this storm, although much there would depend on local terrain channelling stronger winds, so there would be some places getting higher gusts and some sheltered from these damaging winds.

Wind chill values at -2 C and 60 mph are close to -25 C.

These are the potential dangers involved in this weather event -- but will it actually materialize as the models continue to suggest, intermittently at least?

I've been warning on NW for several days that this degree of cold interacting with a strong jet stream and relatively warm ocean, could be the perfect recipe for deepening beyond the 960 mb level into the low 950s or high 940s. There is no reason to discount the maps showing this possible event, until we are much closer to the event time and can use the nowcasting approach to determine the actual intensity. I think this snow hurricane is quite likely to develop and I hope northeast Scotland is ready for it. Clearly all land, sea and air travel would become impossible as well as very dangerous, and people will be stranded in their homes, workplaces or wherever they happen to be around 6-9 pm Thursday when the storm sets in, should this come to pass. People would be wise to plan around this possibility and hope it doesn't happen this way (I know there are people on NW who will hope it does, but this storm would be life-threatening).


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Croute au fromage et oeuf au plat
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The monster is back on the 18z. It has been partly picked up by other GFS runs and other models. This is now in T48. Still no warning from the MET so either they know something that even pro forecasters from other organisations don't (as per above) or it's going to be a repeat of 1987.

If that thing below occurs, Scotland is looking at widespread structural damage and, baring a miracle, loss of lives. Anyone up there, play it safe on thursday evening/night, better be safe than sorry.

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[ 29.01.2008, 22:26: Message edited by: Croute au fromage et oeuf au plat ]

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The cantering captain
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I refuse to allow the weather to disrupt thursday's quiz night.
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Houdi Elbow
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Does 'nowcasting' mean 'looking out of the window'?
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Houdi Elbow
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The Met Office stumble across OTF.
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Croute au fromage et oeuf au plat
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"nowcasting" is indeed looking outside the windows, the basic assumption for snowfall is that they are very unpredictable.
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hobbes
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It had better not snow in London.
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Croute au fromage et oeuf au plat
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The latest on the wind, it's spreading south, the "fun" starts tonight already and northern England will also be affected:

quote:
From the 12z GFS, indications that the event will enter an explosive deepening phase tonight and events may be moving very quickly -- with the low reaching very low pressures south of Faeroes by 06z to 12z, the hurricane force wind threat seems to have repositioned south to cover most of Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland as well as northern England.

At this point, I would suggest that all readers to the north of a line from Galway to Dublin to north Wales to south Yorkshire be alert to the growing threat of damaging westerly winds setting in late tonight and increasing in force through the day Thursday, peaking Thursday night and easing only very slowly on Friday. These winds could be in the range of 60-90 mph on a fairly wide scale, and 70-110 mph locally (wind funnel spots like Glen Ogle, 80-130 mph potential, and higher summits to 160 mph). The cold air comes blasting around this low so quickly now that the earlier concept of a mild interval on Thursday may only really apply to the south and to morning hours. By mid-day Thursday there could already be mixed wintry squalls in central to northern regions, especially Ireland. Scotland will quickly be swept by blizzard conditions as the cold air races around the system.

Milder air pushed around through Norway to circulate back into the low centre could have the effect of shielding the northern Isles and possibly some coastal locations in northeast Scotland from the harsh conditions well into Friday morning, but people living there should be alert to the fact that the hurricane and blizzard conditions could be on the doorstep (to the west and south oddly). Any slight shift in the track or shaping of the storm could return the alert to these regions through Thursday night. Eventually these regions will get into stronger winds and blowing snow, but it may not get as bad as in central and western Scotland on the basis of these latest maps. I have to say that I am not that confident that these details are accurate in the GFS model, so stay on high alert.


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My name is Mumpo
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What's all this whinging about the state of the weather? It was like spring today.
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bryanattoni
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There is a warning on the Dutch weather site for "VERY STRONG TO EXTREMELY STRONG" winds tomorrow. They are predicting 90 km/hr. Last time they had that kind of wind (Dec. 2006) they closed the airport and parked all the planes facing the wind in a certain way. The country shut down.

I was also in Cork in December 2006 and we landed despite winds of about 120 km/hr, which later peaked at 140 km/hr during the night. Nobody anywhere seemed to give a shit, people were doing their shopping without a care in the world and driving, stupidly, through flooded roads as though nothing was going on.

Two totally different approaches to weather.

[ 30.01.2008, 20:17: Message edited by: bryannavaro ]

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Coffy
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I learned a new meteorological term today: the "bowling ball low." It's a short period of rain followed by very high winds; we're in it right now, with rain overnight and this morning, but now it's very sunny but with a brisk wind.

No clue what this has to do with bowling balls, though.

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Croute au fromage et oeuf au plat
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It might be the Swiss in me but I know which approach I prefer Bryan...Mind you, I rather be in an Irish pub than a Dutch/Swiss pub though...
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