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» One Touch Football - Archive » World » Super Tuesday was SO last week. (Page 10)

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Author Topic: Super Tuesday was SO last week.
Reed
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Why would anyone chose to emulate our shitty set-up?
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ursus arctos
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It's marketing much more than anything else. English (and especially American) words help shift product.

And there haven't been any serious issues yet, in large part because there has always been a clear candidate expected to win (and who did).

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Jimski
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Out of interest, why is it (seemingly) always assumed that the longer the Democrats continue to contest this nomination, the more it plays into Republican hands? It seems to me that this contest keeps Obama and Clinton very much in the limelight, while McCain stays in the background.

Is it just the monetary aspect (i.e. that they are spending money best kept for battles with McCain)?

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linus
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Funnily enough, this setup seems to work this time around. Obama wouldn't have had a chance to rise within the Democratic party under a British or Canadian system, he is tapping on grassroots support to overcome his party's leadership inertia. In Canada, Dion did win the leadership of the Liberal Party against the wishes of its leadership, but that was a bit by accident.

It seems that the American system does have a lot of merit, the missing ingredient had been active popular interest.

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The Batebe of Toro Foundation
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Jimski - A lot of it is to do with perceived authority - McCain now has the air of a "winner" wherease the other two are merely "candidates". This means that come the general election, he is better established in the public min as "presidential", and epithet that despite (or perhaps because of) its nebulousness plays a great role in electability.

Clinton and Obama are in the headlines, but as people competing for the right to take on McCain, for equal status with him. This has a strong subconscious effect in establishing him as "superior".

Or something.

[ 04.03.2008, 19:10: Message edited by: The peak of El Toro-quino ]

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E10Rifle
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And active popular politics. But then the "politics of non-politics" is in vogue on both sides of the Atlantic at the moment, serving as it does the status quo.

Jimski's got a point about the contest keeping interest and support alive for the Democrats. I remember when the Tories had a leadership challenge in 95, their poll ratings went up for the duration of it.

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Reed
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"It seems that the American system does have a lot of merit, the missing ingredient had been active popular interest."

But the unfairness and bentness of it all is a big reason there isn't much active popular interest.

Also, a lot of the actively interested people are idiots or worse.

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linus
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My guess of how things will unfold:

Clinton wins Ohio by around 5-8%, Obama ties the popular vote in TX but gets more delegates. Clinton comes out with a slight net delegate gain, but not nearly enough to make a dent into Obama's lead, and not enough delegates left in play for her to reduce that lead down the road.

Some Democtrat heavyweights like richardson come out in favor of Obama, but many others stay on the sidelines.

She goes on to win Pennsylvania by a very narrow margin (Obama has a whole lot of time to make his case and defend himself there, as opposed to the last onslaught of Clinton BS and fear bombs from this weekend), which gives her further fodder to justify her staying in the race despite the fact that she would actually be further away from there in terms of the ultimate delegate count.

At some point, more bigwigs are going to step in and nudge her towards dropping out. One scenario that could happen as well is that a lot of grassroots Black groups and Black voters (among other groups) are going to threaten the Democrats if they see backroom political manoeuvering to keep a more popular candidate away in favor of the establishment's. This should ultimately signal to most of the Democratic leadership that such a move would cost them the election in November.

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Reed
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That's about the best that can be hoped for at this point. I'm very distressed by the way things are going.
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Amor de Cosmos
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Yes. The closer this decision gets to smoke-free back rooms the better chance the Clintons have. I've an awful feeling the Democrats are going to f**k themselves, their supporters and the rest of the world again.

[ 04.03.2008, 19:44: Message edited by: Amor de Cosmos ]

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G-Man
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quote:
Jimski's got a point about the contest keeping interest and support alive for the Democrats. I remember when the Tories had a leadership challenge in 95, their poll ratings went up for the duration of it.
Of course, the benefit of that kicks in only when Clinton drops the negative campaigning.
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Rogin the Armchair fan
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quote:
Funnily enough, this setup seems to work this time around. Obama wouldn't have had a chance to rise within the Democratic party under a British or Canadian system, he is tapping on grassroots support to overcome his party's leadership inertia.
Actually, I could name few leaders of political parties in the UK who have come up from the "grass roots" - Iain Duncan Smith, and now Cameron, being just the latest two examples. And the three blokes who wanted to be Lib Dem leader last autumn, whose names all still escape me.

What we wouldn't countenance, in the UK, would be Cherie Blair launching a political career simply because her husband used to be in Number Ten ...

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linus
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Big win for Obama in Vermont tonight, apparently by a significant margin. Can't say I'm surprised, Vermont is a pretty enlightened state with a long history of civil rights and anti-war support.

I'm a bit nervous about Ohio though, hopefully it will be narrow enough of a loss.

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Reed
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"What we wouldn't countenance, in the UK, would be Cherie Blair launching a political career simply because her husband used to be in Number Ten.

Well, this is all new for us too and I doubt anyone would have imagined it 20 years ago, so never say never.

However, sons or brothers* trading on their name to get elected has been common for a long time. Does that happen in Europe?

*This works for other "walks of life" as well. For example, Whitey Bulger (upon whom Jack Nicholson's character in The Departed is not-to-loosely based) is the brother of Billy Bulger, former president of the Massachusetts State Senate and University of Massachusetts system. He had to step down when it was revealed that he'd talked to his brother on the phone while Whitey was on the lam. Whitey is still at large.

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Tee-Rex
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Glenys Kinnock? (OK, I know he didn't actually get to No. 10). I'll throw in a theory: the spouse's qualifications for public office are often better than the offspring's, but it's the latter that get the breaks.

In recent-ish British politics, probably the least deserving trader on the family name was Winston Churchill's grandson, Winston Churchill MP.

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