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» One Touch Football - Archive » World » Super Tuesday was SO last week. (Page 2)

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Author Topic: Super Tuesday was SO last week.
Inca
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One possibly important factor for Texas: Republicans can vote in the Democratic primary, and that's good news for Obama, as Jon Wiener explains.
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linus
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Obama has all but closed the gap in Texas. With one more week to go, he could emerge with a slight lead, especially since he has done well with caucus formats (TX has a dual format.) Anecdotal reports I've heard was that Barack is very popular among young white conservatives and Republicans, often to the dismay of their parents. He's made an impact deep into Bush territory.

This bodes well for the primary and the final round next November.

I would say the soccer parallel here is Obama came back from a 1-0 deficit, scored two goals and is dominating in the second half, leading with 25 min left to play with the opponent starting to get frustrated and going for the ankles.

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linus
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Latest CNN polls have Obama up 50 to 46 in TX, down 8 points in OH.
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The Batebe of Toro Foundation
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That's still within CNN's margin of error (4.5%), but a swing of six in his favour since the last one they did.
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Reed
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With all due respect to my parents and grandparents and about six generations of ancestors who lived in Ohio (mostly Cincinnati), as well as my uncle's family who still lives there (Bryan, north of Toledo), I have to say, Ohio really does suck ass.
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jason voorhees
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As far as VP Hill, strange bedpersons and all of that. However, that Kansas Gov Seibelius will probably get the nod - especially if winning the west/midwest is a priority of Obama.

You know Hillary's in trouble in Texass when she's already dismissing it as "not that important."

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Amor de Cosmos
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Telling Texans before they vote, that their state isn't that important doesn't strike me as a very productive strategy.
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jason voorhees
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One guy's actually predicting a 70-20% victory for Obama with his turnout operation. That'll be absolutely hillaryous.
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linus
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Even a 50-49 TX loss would be devastating for Hillary. I'm guessing Obama wins by about 2-3% in TX and loses by around 5% in OH, resulting in a very tiny net gain of delegates for Hillary on March 4.

Kind of the soccer equivalent of Obama still leading 2-1 but the clock now down to 5 min with the trailing team showing signs of severe fatigue.

[ 26.02.2008, 18:13: Message edited by: linus ]

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Antonio Gramsci
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Jay Cost is consistently the best analyst of voting data. Here he makes the case that it's not *quite* over.
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Reed
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From that articlel...Clinton can argue that they won't be able to do this ["swiftboat"]to her. They have been trying to no avail for sixteen years.

I don't buy that. They have been doing that for 16 years and, as far as I can tell, have been fairly successful. Clinton has "high negatives" in lots of places. A lot of people hate her irrationally. Granted, those people are probably not going to vote for Obama either, but they might be less inclined to give money or campaign or even show up to vote for McCain if she's not in it.

I don't see that level of hate building for Obama in the next 9 months unless he "is caught with a dead girl or live boy," as the saying goes.

[ 26.02.2008, 20:39: Message edited by: Reed ]

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linus
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That article sounds very pro-Hillary. It also somehow omits special interests in the checklist and motives of superdelegates. Entrenched parties are going to pressure many of them and push for Hillary but they'll need the gap to narrow substantially. Otherwise, propping Hillary against the wish of a majority of voters will crush her very limited ability of taking on McCain in November.
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linus
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Interesting development in TX: apparently some Republicans are voting for Hillary in order to pave the way to an easier path for McCain in November...
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ad hoc
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quote:
(I'm as culpable as anyone) the thread has become a bit of a poo-throwing contest about rather different issues.
Words fail me.
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Antonio Gramsci
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The Democrats' position on trade is beginning to scare the shit out of me. They have fallen for the BS line that trade (rather than technological innovation) is the primary cause of job losses in the US, and by God they're going to take out the frustration on Canadians and Mexicans by renegotiating NAFTA.

Trust me on this: American factories are not relocating to Canada. They aren't even really leaving for Mexico these days. Blaming NAFTA for Americans' economic problems is right up there with "British jobs for British workers" in the xenophobe-pandering sweepstakes.

Do these people not read history? The Smoot-Hawley tarriff (two American senators, not a clown double-act as it might sound), adopted in 1930 to "protect" Americans after the crash of 29, was one of the single biggest factors leading to worldwide economic decline in the 30s. We're heading straight for this again.

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