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Author Topic: if there is a god..please keep thatcher alive
hobbes
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Says the theologian to the banker.
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die grosse linke Hand
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And to think I ever wondered why you get people's back up Toro.

I think you need to give the ECB a fair run to see how things go. I honestly don't think that currency union over the Eurozone is a wise idea, and ceding control of the currency given the established nature of London as a financial centre would not be a wise move.

Trichet has already provoked certain amounts of alarm in various countries over allowing increased inflationary pressure and almost recessionary circumstances to coexist due to the challenge faced by the Euroland. The reason currency union can work in the US is because labour is mobile. I think we can posit a reasonable evidence that this is nowhere near the case in the EU. There is a reasonable amount of evidence to suggest that you should back away from such a broad ranging union that has not seen a significant test, and with the Eurozone widening rapidly has significant growth before proving reasonable grounds for stability.

I can find you a nice few papers on Monetary Policy that would maybe take you a little further into the matter if you care. I hold the use of interest rate shocks and credibility theory to be one of the better ways to invoke power to lift a failing economy (Bernanke clearly shares my views following his crazy behaviour in January with the interest rates).

I don't see why you should volunteer away controls over your countries monetary policy when you have evidence that your citizens would not be mobile over the expanded territory.

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The Batebe of Toro Foundation
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hobbes -

a) I'm not a theologian.

b) Do all bankers agree with dglh, and do they have some special authority on the subject?

c) Do they have any special expertise at all, or is that economists?

d) Even if your assumptions were accurate, what a load of moronic ad hominem nonsense.

dglh - I thought the tone of that was self-evidently jokey. Sorry if it didn't come across.

[ 09.03.2008, 21:08: Message edited by: The peak of El Toro-quino ]

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die grosse linke Hand
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Toro - my background is as an econ masters, specializing in monetary policy, and then in banks. Which makes me one of the dullest people you could ever meet.

Given the world that it involves, I didn't see your point as a joke - sadly I took it as a little snarky that I simplified some relatively reasoned economic literature in a post. This is probably blind sighted on my part, but Economics is simply some freeform maths to try and roughly explain things that cannot be proven, and you get used to arguing over anything and everything.

In this case a lot of it is formed from varying bits and pieces, but you become quite firm in your reasoning. In a time when the country keeps arguing for more localised power it seems absurd to me to make financial control more generalised. To my mind they should run in similar scale and focus (as reasonable as is possible).

As you can tell, I am somewhat a monetary policy disciple, which is why I was keen to study over in Soccer Scrimage's part of the world (though the amount of the topic I would embrace is in a bit of doubt). Which easily puts me out as a bit of a target here I should expect, but also sits very funny with my politics (simple assumption would throw me straight into the Republican camp I should expect).

[ 09.03.2008, 21:13: Message edited by: die grosse linke Hand ]

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hobbes
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I think the words you're looking for Toro are "Sorry, I was wrong."
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E10Rifle
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I don't exactly share your politics dglh, but your points seem to make a reasonable amount of sense to me.

It's facile, and inaccurate, to see the euro debate as "left/progressive=pro vs right/bigots=anti". The political venn diagrams on this one are all over the place.

[ 10.03.2008, 00:29: Message edited by: E10Rifle ]

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ad hoc
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quote:
I think the words you're looking for Toro are "Sorry, I was wrong."
It'll be a cold day in hell before those words ever trip off that keyboard Hobbes.
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Belhaven
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So, if I understand you right, DGLH, the US would have been better off if each state had its own currency and monetary independence. This should surely be the case irrespective of labour mobility.

It is also my impression that labour mobility is increasing rapidly in the EU, in particular from Eastern Europe, but maybe you have some evidence to counter that claim?

[ 10.03.2008, 12:09: Message edited by: Belhaven ]

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die grosse linke Hand
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I think that within the EU you do have a lot of labour mobility. In the US you have an enormous amount of labour mobility (the linguistic barrier feels the stronger one as far as I am concerned). Mobility is one of the key players in using a single currency - the operation suggests you want to be able to move workers to where jobs are, and the separation of economic circumstances is a function of policy and control. While it is increasing in Europe, I think it would be a safe guess that British workers - at present - are not very mobile at all.

My belief is that general US politics is so much more unified (given the push back you still see on EU law, though there are large differences), and lacks barriers the EU has that the currency union works to a reasonable effect. Though it is pretty fair to say that Nebraska typically takes a kicking if California and the tri-state area are doing pretty well. There is the point where for the benefits gained by controlling policy are undone by the inconvenience of monetary independence - at what level you call that is probably more due to taste on theory.

An interesting diversion on this (maybe) is that the policy and action of the fed is very different from that of the BoE. The BoE has a strict inflation guideline to work with. The Fed is very much more focussed on a primary of growth, and a lot looser inflation targets. The ECB objectives are closer to the BoE, but I have a quick thought of concern on the practicalities of maintaining price stability over a region with diverse taxation and other policies (I am thinking the Fed steered away from this objective with some good reason - price stability over a large region may be an impractical policy).

I will probably have to wait about a week before I can dig for any articles on this - I have two midterms and a pile of other things to do this week.

Once again, I remind that my embrace of monetary policy was a separate academic pursuit (and one partly because writings on fiscal policy are really quite crappy and dull). A lot of the above is a grabbing at lots of ideas from various points of truth and individual thought. I keep thinking more and more that I should do the individual study option available and get back into this.

[ 10.03.2008, 12:46: Message edited by: die grosse linke Hand ]

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Wyatt Earp
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quote:
It'll be a cold day in hell before those words ever trip off that keyboard Hobbes.
Nice one. Works on a number of levels.
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die grosse linke Hand
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e10 - I would agree very much with you. Sadly Monetary policy is very much attached to one side of the political sphere more than another, but has a lot of value in it.

The whole Euro debate is hugely complicated. I think that taking a free option to wait and see was the best thing possible (I would - free call options?!?), though the ridiculous battle to save the pound was a bit much (and something I feel can rightly be held against the policies of the time).

[ 10.03.2008, 12:51: Message edited by: die grosse linke Hand ]

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Fuzzy Dunlop
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quote:
I can see your point. Neither of them actually live in Scotland anymore.
In that case, you can have me and Alex Salmond then (winky).
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Belhaven
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Cheers DGLH. A very informative answer.
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boris
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quote:
I'm not really bothered, as long as my mum gets to celebrate her death.
My mum's the direct opposite - she says she doesn't want to be around when Thatcher dies because of all the sycophantic hypocritical media coverage we will doubtless be subject to. When I pointed out that she didn't need to pay any attention to that, but just go and get drunk celebrating, she opined that Thatcher will surely find a way to make even her own death a miserable event for everyone else.
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The Batebe of Toro Foundation
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As Wyatt, certainly, should know, I have often apologised. But hobbes, when you make a post as ill-informed and badly-reasoned as you did, I'm not going to apologise for pointing that out. Even were the initial post you were responding to not a joke, your response was extremely dumb.

Ad hoc - I know you "don't think it's worthwhile talking to me" anymore, which is a pity. but are you going to persist in snarking about me every single time somebody disagrees with me?

dglh - fair enough. I suspect we couldn't possibly be in further disagreement about the merits of monetarism, and I'd love to get into this in more detail. But I suspect it'll have to wait until April when my thesis is done.


(It even contains praise of Keynes as moral exemplar, you'll hate it...)

[ 10.03.2008, 15:20: Message edited by: The peak of El Toro-quino ]

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